I’ll save you some time, if you’re in a hurry. No, we are not in a craft beer bubble. There is no ceiling that we’re about to crash into. I’ll dive into it a little deeper here in a minute, but I recognize that you might have somewhere to be. People love to talk about doom and gloom, and we all know that negativity get’s more eyeballs that positivity, so likely, when you read about the impending crash of craft beer – someone is calling out for some attention.

Give them a hug, and refer them to me to be set straight.

Over Time, We Grow, and It’s Still The Same

I’m sitting here, refreshing and updating this post almost 7 years after I wrote it for the first time… and it’s a little fun, I have to admit. When I first wrote this post I made a point that we had 15 breweries open at the time, which was nowhere near some other ‘Beer Cities’ that people like to mention when they’re talking about these things.

Oh how things have changed, right? Now, as of writing this update, we are at (depending on how you count it) anywhere from 50-70 breweries around town. That’s a bit more places selling beer – and I still feel exactly the same as I did 7 years ago.

This idea of a “beer bubble” is a bit crazy.

What’s A Beer Bubble?

The concept of a craft beer bubble is simple, and it’s a sound idea. There are only so many people in a given market – beer drinkers. There is a set limit on the amount of beer which can be consumed. Once that community makes that amount of beer – it’s the top of the bubble. If you’re making as much beer as is being consumed – and 5 more breweries open… something has to give.

It pops, and places fail because they have no more customers.

It makes perfect sense, and I can’t fault the logic – except for the fact that it misunderstands what’s happening when you look at an industry like craft beer.

The Argument

The argument about this beer bubble concept lies in a couple different ideas. The first idea is that we are drinking as much craft beer as we currently can. Folks say that the current craft beer drinkers around are at their max, and to support more breweries we have to find more drinkers.

The second piece of the argument is that the folks that drink craft beer, drink craft beer, the folks who drink wine, drink wine, whiskey drinkers like their whiskey… etc.

Next up, you’ll hear people tell you that craft breweries are craft breweries – restaurants are restaurants – and the neighborhood bar will always exist as a place to hide from your husband or wife over a pint and some wings.

Each one of these concepts help to explain why the ceiling of a beer bubble exists, and each one is more wrong today than they were when I first wrote this 7 years ago.

Let’s take a look at each of them one at a time.

We Can’t Drink Any More!

This is crazy. Even just looking at craft beer fans… that is current craft beer drinkers. We can find plenty more opportunities to crack open a great beer. This has become more and more accurate as the industry has continued to evolve and push themselves.

We are now blessed with plenty low-no alcohol beer options, “healthier” choices via low calorie or low carb beers… seltzers produced by the local brewery, etc.

The chances you have to crack one open and have it fit the situation grow every day, and breweries are constantly looking to find more solutions to situations where their fans are reaching for a drink.

We Drink What We Drink

Even more important as the amount of drinking increases, is this idea that breweries have to only make beer. Hang with me for a second, because I know we’re talking about a beer bubble. For decades, you had the places that made beer, and then you had the places that drinkers would go when they wanted to drink something else.

This new world where wine drinkers, whiskey drinkers, cocktail drinkers and whatever else you can think of can walk in to a local brewery and find what they are looking for creates more opportunities.

These opportunities may be as small as one or two beers during the night, or an all out conversion of a drinker that “only drank wine” to a new craft beer fan. The more you are exposed to, the more chances you have of getting curious, and the more chances you have of diving into a broader world.

The Brewery Looks Different

Here’s a big factor for me. The idea of what a craft brewery is keeps evolving. When I first wrote this post the look of a brewery was fairly simple. The concepts didn’t have a huge range. Today? Today is a whole new ballgame. You have breweries that fit every idea you can think of – from tiny neighborhood-only joints, to massive industrial machines cranking out packaging like there’s no tomorrow. In fact, can you believe there are even online stores that offer virtual beer tasting?

You can have a beer on a farm, in a garage, on a swanky rooftop. It’s all part of a thriving industry that still has opportunity to grow if you find your spot within it… and I think that’s the bigger thing we should be looking at.

Who Are You, And Where Do You Fit?

The real question shouldn’t be if we have a beer bubble. The question should be (if you’re thinking of opening a brewery) who are you?

Before you even think of serving your first pint, you have to look deep inside yourself, this company you’re building, your community, your space, your very identity, and know exactly what it all is. Then you have to ask yourself honestly if it all matches up. Find your place, find your niche, fill a need of a spot, or a community, or a group of people and you’ll find your place within it all.

Gone are the days where you could just set up some picnic tables in a warehouse and brew up some IPA… you have to be better than that.

It’s not a bubble.